The current economic recession originated in east Lancashire and is set to last a year longer than the rest of Britain, a new economic paper has claimed.
Economists forecast the region’s downturn will bottom out in the final quarter of 2010, nearly three-and-a-half years after first hitting Hyndburn.
The figures have been released as part of a series of papers analysing the long-term economic growth of the Manchester and north west region.
Using labour market claimant data to draw conclusions down at district level, the report authored by Michael Artis and Marianne Sensier concludes that Hyndburn entered recession in July 2007, eight months before the north west average and a whole year before Britain overall.
The report’s model combines house prices, manufacturing and service sector survey information to forecast when the economy will start to grow again.
There may be some hope that Hyndburn may exit recession earlier than elsewhere as the manufacturing sector is forecast by CBI surveys to begin expanding during the first quarter of this year.
Almost one-in-five of the borough’s workforce (19.5 per cent) is employed in manufacturing, compared to an overall north west average of 12.4 per cent.
Latest labour market statistics released by the Office for National Statistics show that in January 2010 there were 2,185 job seekers allowance claimants in Hyndburn, equivalent to 4.4 per cent of the working age population.
This statistic compared to just 963 claimants, or 2.0 per cent, in July 2007, when the area’s economy supposedly peaked.
Although the recent quarterly jobseekers count has levelled off, claimant numbers are still at their highest rates since July 1994.